The 2024 presidential election is in Joe Biden’s hands. As the current president, the election will largely be a reflection of his job performance and the overall sentiment of the nation. Border security is likely to be the most crucial issue in this election, amidst foreign crises, cultural debates, and soaring prices. Moreover, a shift in the voting patterns of Black and Latino voters affected by illegal immigration could potentially sway the election towards a candidate like Donald Trump, ultimately leading to his return to the White House.
Since President Biden took office in 2021, almost 4 million migrants have entered the United States. To put this into perspective, it’s like importing four cities the size of Austin, Texas. Border states have been sending migrants to self-declared sanctuary cities and states, which has put a strain on their resources. Mayor Eric Adams of New York has expressed concern that this crisis will have a devastating impact on his city.
The attention of residents has been drawn to the issue at hand. Interestingly, the resistance has not come from white hipsters in the cities but instead from Black and Latino neighborhoods. In a public meeting, hundreds of residents from the racially diverse Hyde Park neighborhood in Chicago protested against the resettlement plan. Similarly, in New York City, protesters marched with signs in both English and Spanish, referring to the wave of migrants as an “invasion.”
According to polling data, Black voters have a lukewarm stance towards migrants and often share viewpoints that align more with Republicans than Democrats. In fact, almost three times as many Black Democrats view illegal immigration as a “threat” to the country compared to their white Democrat counterparts. Furthermore, a recent poll indicates that Black Democrats have the lowest score among all races when asked if diversity makes the country a “better place to live in.”
Electoral politics doesn’t need a massive upheaval to create an impact. If Trump becomes the Republican nominee for the third time, those who didn’t vote for him in 2016 or 2020 may still not be in favor of him. However, the mandatory relocation of migrants and unfavorable economic circumstances might result in some Democratic voters choosing to abstain from voting, or reluctantly voting for Trump or a third-party candidate.
Let’s be honest, the chances of a majority of the Black community voting for Trump are practically non-existent. Moreover, it’s highly unlikely that any Republican candidate would be able to break the Democrats’ stronghold on the majority of the Black vote, which has been going on for almost a century. However, there is a real possibility that Biden’s recent actions could push away enough Black voters to potentially turn key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in favor of the Republican candidate in the upcoming election.
The potential outcome of the 2024 presidential election in Pennsylvania can be inferred from the demographics. Pennsylvania’s exit polls of 2020 reveal that Biden’s victory was largely due to his securing 81% of the vote in Philadelphia. Black voters comprised 11% of Pennsylvania’s electorate and 92% of them voted for the Democrat. Biden won the state with a slim margin of just over 80,000 votes. The net gain of 640,000 votes from the Black share of the electorate was advantageous for Biden. However, if the margins are narrower, even slightly, the results could vary, regardless of changes in other parts of the state. Assuming no other changes in the electorate, if Trump could secure just 15% of the Black vote, he might win the state outright by a little less than his 2016 victory.
If small shifts in Milwaukee and Detroit were to occur, Trump could potentially win a combined 25 electoral votes from Wisconsin and Michigan. This, along with the three Rust Belt states in his column, would give him a winning total of 279 electoral votes – even if the rest of the map remained unchanged from 2020. However, it’s important to note that demographic voting patterns are unlikely to remain the same across the country, as other states like Georgia have significant Black and Latino populations. In addition, the Latino vote could prove to be crucial in states like Arizona and Nevada.
Arizona hangs in the balance with a slim margin to make up. Only about 11,500 voters clinched the state for Biden, and with 61% of Latino voters supporting him, any loss could have significant implications. The Hispanic community constituted 19% of the state’s 2020 electorate and is expected to grow in the coming year. Recent voting trends have shown Latino voters shifting towards Republicans, as seen in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas and Florida. Therefore, it’s not impossible for Trump to make inroads and narrow the margins in Arizona.
Based on the actual voter turnout and 2020 exit polling, Biden secured a lead of approximately 152,000 votes over Trump from Latino voters. However, if the Hispanic vote narrows down to 60-40%, Trump could emerge victorious in the state, despite losing it by a considerable margin three years ago.
Back in 2016, Hillary Clinton made the mistake of assuming that her lead was so significant that she didn’t need to worry about protecting the traditionally Democratic-voting “Blue Wall” states. However, as demographics and priorities shifted, Clinton was caught off guard by a perfect storm of events that ultimately led to Trump’s victory. Joe Biden now faces a similar issue. He may believe that no matter what Trump says or does, Black voters will remain loyal to the Democratic party. Unfortunately, this assumption may be both true and inconsequential. Trump only needs to sway a small percentage of minority voters to secure another victory.
Love him or hate him, Trump was steadfast in his stance on border security. This may be why President Biden is now resuming the construction of the border wall and requesting additional funding for border security. However, it is doubtful that the current administration will be able to effectively resolve the ongoing border crisis. Even if they were to make a genuine effort after years of missteps, it would be comparable to closing the barn door after the horses have already bolted. Swing state voters, who hold significant sway in elections, may remember one key thing about Trump: he was focused on preventing the door from being left open in the first place.
Kristin Tate, a Texas-based writer, specializes in covering topics like government spending, federal regulation, and digital currencies. As an on-air contributor for Sky News and various U.S.-based cable networks, she offers insightful political commentary. Tate is also the author of “The Liberal Invasion of Red State America.”